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Mar 27, 2016
03/16
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michele: no. it is too similar. what is surprising me is that you would expect the monte carlo store to have a ticket that is five times and then at the end it is $50 or $100 different. it is surprising to me. because i would have expected a bigger difference. when you look at large averages, they tend to -- francine: it was a great pleasure to have you in the program. thank you. michele: thank you very much. ♪ ♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie rose." how is it to be back at this house? lin-manuel: very normal. i only live a few blocks away. so, it's -- i have been here since i was one year old. charlie: this is a house of memories. lin-manuel: this is a house of memories. it is a house of ghosts. it is also it was a laboratory , for me. i have filmed so many action movies where we are sitting.
michele: no. it is too similar. what is surprising me is that you would expect the monte carlo store to have a ticket that is five times and then at the end it is $50 or $100 different. it is surprising to me. because i would have expected a bigger difference. when you look at large averages, they tend to -- francine: it was a great pleasure to have you in the program. thank you. michele: thank you very much. ♪ ♪ announcer: from our studios in new york city, this is "charlie...
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Mar 26, 2016
03/16
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michele: i have no doubt. the number of people who are entering the middle class, the average income of the people, the culture, how they have been able to develop very fast, from travel,ree -- luxury to it is great potential. there is also the traveling aspect. there are more travelers, more curiosity. and changing destinations. they may be modifying spending behavior. francine: do you have to adapt your strategy? do you have to find out how the chinese consumer spends, how the chinese consumer travels? michele: absolutely. i am trying to understand where they travel, and where they will go. there has been a clear evolution. from the beginning, only hong kong and macau were the achievable destinations. then you had australia, europe, and sometimes in mexico. a love of traveling. recently inside asia. there is in improving relationship between japan and china. francine: what surprises you the most about the chinese consumer? michele: the speed. francine: at which they shop or travel? [laughter] michele: the sp
michele: i have no doubt. the number of people who are entering the middle class, the average income of the people, the culture, how they have been able to develop very fast, from travel,ree -- luxury to it is great potential. there is also the traveling aspect. there are more travelers, more curiosity. and changing destinations. they may be modifying spending behavior. francine: do you have to adapt your strategy? do you have to find out how the chinese consumer spends, how the chinese...
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May 29, 2015
05/15
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michelle: no. i think there is still so much investment in terms of technology, in terms of research and development, and that can really be -- when people try to look forward into how much growth there is left in the economy, we do not know now. we are going to find out. tom: michelle meyer with us on this estimating gdp. -- on mis-estimating gdp. thank you for you or responses. love what we're seeing. it goes to michelle meyer and david rosenberg's work. when will inflation return? it is that simple. it is like a haiku on friday. ♪ [beeping] ooo come on everybody, i think this is my grandson. [lip syncing] ♪little girl you look so lonesome oh my goodness. ♪i see you are feeling blue ♪come on over to my place ♪hey girl ♪we're having a party happy birthday, grandma! ♪we'll be swinging ♪dancing and singing ♪baby come on over tonight [baseball crowd noise] ♪ ♪ [x1 chime] ♪ ♪ [crowd cheers] oh! i can't believe it! [cheering] hi, grandma! ♪ tom: good morning everyone. "bloom
michelle: no. i think there is still so much investment in terms of technology, in terms of research and development, and that can really be -- when people try to look forward into how much growth there is left in the economy, we do not know now. we are going to find out. tom: michelle meyer with us on this estimating gdp. -- on mis-estimating gdp. thank you for you or responses. love what we're seeing. it goes to michelle meyer and david rosenberg's work. when will inflation return? it is that...
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Jul 30, 2015
07/15
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michelle: it does. it means that first quarter estimate is a lot more -- i am sorry, the first estimate but they could change the history, and if you look historically, the prior three years could be revised. let's say you get the past three years revised higher, per se that is a different state of the economy. so things can change. one of the things that we know they are going to adjust is they are changing the q1 seasonal adjustment process to better control for the residual seasonality issues that will redistribute growth. there is a greater emphasis on gross domestic income which is interesting because it is another way of measuring activity in the economy. tom: it is usually more optimistic. michelle: lately it has, gap. vonnie: because a stronger dollar, that is why, right? michelle: gdp is a bit more from external factors, and i could be potentially creating a little wider trade deficit recently. i think what you see if you look at a broad basket of indicators, gdp has been softer than a lot of o
michelle: it does. it means that first quarter estimate is a lot more -- i am sorry, the first estimate but they could change the history, and if you look historically, the prior three years could be revised. let's say you get the past three years revised higher, per se that is a different state of the economy. so things can change. one of the things that we know they are going to adjust is they are changing the q1 seasonal adjustment process to better control for the residual seasonality...
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Mar 25, 2016
03/16
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michele: i have no doubt. the number of people who are entering the middle class, the average income of the people, the culture, how they have been able to develop very fast, from luxury, traveling, it is great potential. there is also the traveling aspect. there are more travelers, more curiosity. and changing destinations. they may be modifying spending behavior. francine: to adapt your strategy? do you have to find out how the chinese consumer spends, how the chinese consumer travels? michele: absolutely. i am trying to understand where they travel and where they will go. there has been a clear evolution. from the beginning, only hong kong and macau were the achievable destinations. then you had australia, europe, and sometimes in mexico. a love of traveling. recently inside asia. francine: what surprises you the most about the chinese consumer? michele: the speed. francine: at which they shop or travel? [laughter] michele: the speed of evolution. they have been evolving from group to individual traveling.
michele: i have no doubt. the number of people who are entering the middle class, the average income of the people, the culture, how they have been able to develop very fast, from luxury, traveling, it is great potential. there is also the traveling aspect. there are more travelers, more curiosity. and changing destinations. they may be modifying spending behavior. francine: to adapt your strategy? do you have to find out how the chinese consumer spends, how the chinese consumer travels?...
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May 11, 2016
05/16
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michelle: when she was 12? that's another sort of -- it is why the play -- charlie: what did she know? michelle: it is likely exists -- why the play exist. she is the good guy he is the bad guy. she is full of spikes and damage and difficulties. you start to think, do i feel tenderly towards the person or do i feel more tenderly, surprisingly, towards this person. the play goes back and forth by that. who can you believe? who can you align yourself with? who was on the right side? hopefully there is a clarifying moment in the play towards the end when it becomes apparent. jeff: or everything gets thrown up in the air and you don't know anything. that is me. charlie: he doesn't know anything. jeff: he knows. but whether the audience knows. there is a lot of is he or isn't he? charlie: that is part of the magic of the play. jeff: and always will be. whether he acts on it or not. charlie: once you are you always are. jeff: i -- yes. very rarely do you hear about someone who did it once. charlie: what is interestin
michelle: when she was 12? that's another sort of -- it is why the play -- charlie: what did she know? michelle: it is likely exists -- why the play exist. she is the good guy he is the bad guy. she is full of spikes and damage and difficulties. you start to think, do i feel tenderly towards the person or do i feel more tenderly, surprisingly, towards this person. the play goes back and forth by that. who can you believe? who can you align yourself with? who was on the right side? hopefully...
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Jul 14, 2023
07/23
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michelle bullock, hugely qualified. very well respected economist and the first woman to lead the rba. belle, what are we seeing? >> given the moves in the aussie dollar,, and the bond space this morning, you can see here, very little change even at the front end of the curve. the way that investors are interpreting this decision so far, then name of michelle bullock is an x rba governor, her term starting in september of next year, essentially telling us investors so far expect policy continuity to stay in place for some time to come. thus the reaction we are seeing as we get all see markets underway. a staggered start. 10 minutes to be fully online. not yet seeing the full price reaction. in the session today, it's also about what came through from the u.s. overnight, particularly the producer price numbers telling us perhaps a disinflation trend could be starting to take hold or at least if you change on, that is the narrative traders have been clinging to. that's what we will be watching quite closely on the session
michelle bullock, hugely qualified. very well respected economist and the first woman to lead the rba. belle, what are we seeing? >> given the moves in the aussie dollar,, and the bond space this morning, you can see here, very little change even at the front end of the curve. the way that investors are interpreting this decision so far, then name of michelle bullock is an x rba governor, her term starting in september of next year, essentially telling us investors so far expect policy...
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Oct 30, 2015
10/15
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michelle meyer, for make of america maryland. michelle, good to see you. betty: the big data point is everyone was so focused on the employment cost index and it was fairly unremarkable and subdued. moving incated by not september and october? it is something the fed was probably aware of and one of the reasons they have been taking down the forecast of nehru. we are not seeing wage growth. it was a pickup in the second quarter, and if we see prints see it go we will higher on the year-to-year basis. i think it helps the december call. they're looking at a basket of indicators. when i think that we learned from the october meeting is that the bars not that high for them to grow at this point. they need to feel confident that the downside risks have abated both from the global economy and from the financial market. the inflationary pressures-- confident"e quot" that they will be little need them overtime. do you that unemployment lower than we've actually thought? michelle: it's possible that that's why the federal officials to take another numbers. werea f
michelle meyer, for make of america maryland. michelle, good to see you. betty: the big data point is everyone was so focused on the employment cost index and it was fairly unremarkable and subdued. moving incated by not september and october? it is something the fed was probably aware of and one of the reasons they have been taking down the forecast of nehru. we are not seeing wage growth. it was a pickup in the second quarter, and if we see prints see it go we will higher on the year-to-year...
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Mar 10, 2017
03/17
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michelle: i felt the same. i felt like i did theater for a long time before "downton" and had done a few small tv roles but i found it very intimidating at first. cameras and the crew. i had spent so long doing theater. i feel like i'm at that point now where i'm used to it. anthony: when did you figure out how to carve out a role into very small, little parts that you did over the course of three months of shooting as opposed to one night of the performance? that's something i marvel at, how you come in and out of character so quickly. in between all that chaos around. michelle: it took getting used to for me. televisiontheater to -- of course, for three hours, you're playing the character constantly. and you are only going offstage for a change. but having those hours in between, i've gotten used to it now. i find it hard kind of having , less control. on stage, you have the control. but anything can happen on a set. jim: when filming, the easiest bit is when the cameras going and filming and you have somethi
michelle: i felt the same. i felt like i did theater for a long time before "downton" and had done a few small tv roles but i found it very intimidating at first. cameras and the crew. i had spent so long doing theater. i feel like i'm at that point now where i'm used to it. anthony: when did you figure out how to carve out a role into very small, little parts that you did over the course of three months of shooting as opposed to one night of the performance? that's something i marvel...
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Mar 9, 2017
03/17
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michelle: i knew really young. anthony: you went to drama school, didn't you? michelle: i did. i went to a local state school from the age of five. schoola -- a local stage from the age of five. it was a hobby my parents found for us. i was dancing and singing, sort te i musical theater rou could have gone down. when i was 16, i had an encouraging drama teacher. she really encouraged me. she wrote all my applications to drama schools. that was it, i went to drama school and i knew i was hooked. jim: when you get into drama school you think, i'm home. anthony: everybody loves what you love. michelle: that was it. i knew that i was home. anthony: would you ever do broadway? michelle: i would. i'm actually dying to get back on stage. anthony: you played eliza doolittle but not in "my fair chameleon -- in "pygmalion." they are doing a new "my fair lady." you've done theater too, jim. i did. i got used to cameras. they have the lands. -- they have the lens. i thought i had to do enough and that led into more and more films. the christmas" before last. you have to keep it going. you
michelle: i knew really young. anthony: you went to drama school, didn't you? michelle: i did. i went to a local state school from the age of five. schoola -- a local stage from the age of five. it was a hobby my parents found for us. i was dancing and singing, sort te i musical theater rou could have gone down. when i was 16, i had an encouraging drama teacher. she really encouraged me. she wrote all my applications to drama schools. that was it, i went to drama school and i knew i was hooked....
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Jul 10, 2015
07/15
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michelle: i think so. what we have seen in politics over the past few years is very little shock around washington. tom: with a government shutdown this fall that the gop made -- is there talk about it? brendan: listen, we talked about trump and we all emerged without dignity intact. coming up we will talk about the housing market with michelle meyer. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪ tom: good friday morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we welcome you. within the tumult of much better markets, here is rented really with top headlines. brendan: greece's prime minister with a proposal that is much closer to demands now. because the tax hikes -- for tax hikes and spending cuts. in return, he wants a $59 billion bailout. french president francois hollande calls the proposal serious and credible. the plan gets its first test in greek parliament today. last sunday, voters rejected austerity measures that were similar. negotiators are trying to reach a deal on iran nuclear program but
michelle: i think so. what we have seen in politics over the past few years is very little shock around washington. tom: with a government shutdown this fall that the gop made -- is there talk about it? brendan: listen, we talked about trump and we all emerged without dignity intact. coming up we will talk about the housing market with michelle meyer. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. ♪ tom: good friday morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we welcome...
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May 8, 2015
05/15
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patent and trademark office michelle lee. after spending nine years in the tech industry serving as deputy general counsel of google, lee focused her efforts on improving the patent system. now the u.s. p.t.o. is working to encourage more women to enter the stem field. listen to why michelle lee is focusing on this issue. michelle: i was born and raised in the silicon valley. all the dads on the street i grew up on were engineers and they invented things. they filed for patents. they started companies. some of them succeeded and some did not but for those that did they revolutionized the world and the way we live. i helped build a radio with my dad in our living room and i went to m.i.t. and studied electrical engineering and computer science. i've always had innovation and entrepreneurship as part of my background. i have to say when i entered m.i.t. we were certainly in the minority. women were certainly in the minority. and when i went to grad school in the computer science department in the m.i.t. artificial intelligence
patent and trademark office michelle lee. after spending nine years in the tech industry serving as deputy general counsel of google, lee focused her efforts on improving the patent system. now the u.s. p.t.o. is working to encourage more women to enter the stem field. listen to why michelle lee is focusing on this issue. michelle: i was born and raised in the silicon valley. all the dads on the street i grew up on were engineers and they invented things. they filed for patents. they started...
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Feb 14, 2019
02/19
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michelle, what do you think? michelle:alix: that is a structw versus i think she is absolutely right. there are bigger factors influencing what the breakeven level of housing might be. when you look at the simple math and you think about the population dynamic, you can come up with a household rate that will yield about 1.5 million housing starts on aggregate as the breakeven. that is what we used to think historically, what it does not think that is the case anymore. it seems like it will be lower than that. you have the dynamics that have impacted how high supply might go, but at the same time you of structural dynamics that have also impact the equilibrium rate for household and that is keeping it lower. we are talking about lower breakevens. alix: thank you very much. michelle meyer's and nela richardson's and. always great to see you. retail sales the biggest slump in nine years and markets reacting. you're seeing the dollar move lower. this is bloomberg. ♪ i am watching -- then expected slump in retail sa
michelle, what do you think? michelle:alix: that is a structw versus i think she is absolutely right. there are bigger factors influencing what the breakeven level of housing might be. when you look at the simple math and you think about the population dynamic, you can come up with a household rate that will yield about 1.5 million housing starts on aggregate as the breakeven. that is what we used to think historically, what it does not think that is the case anymore. it seems like it will be...
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Jan 17, 2017
01/17
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michel: but that is not always the case. each region has different inmates, different tastes terms of food. you have to localize production anyway, especially on the corporate action. but also you have formulas asian that can be done locally. so we are not too concerned. to 2017,you look ahead what are you most optimistic and what are you most concerned about? michel: short-term, the measures announcing are probably positive for the u.s. there is a lot of things the u.s. needs to do. the first impact could be quite positive. cons could come later. reductionism has consequences -- protectionism has consequences. it depends on how trump acts and communicates while president. it might once responsibilities kick in. erik: it might and it may not. we will see friday. michel demare, chairman of syngenta. for the time being, back to you. mark: great chats. thanks. do not miss our exclusive ubs' governor. -- with stuart gulliver, hsbc ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: live from london and new york, i am mark barton. julie: i am juli
michel: but that is not always the case. each region has different inmates, different tastes terms of food. you have to localize production anyway, especially on the corporate action. but also you have formulas asian that can be done locally. so we are not too concerned. to 2017,you look ahead what are you most optimistic and what are you most concerned about? michel: short-term, the measures announcing are probably positive for the u.s. there is a lot of things the u.s. needs to do. the first...
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Nov 6, 2014
11/14
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michelle knight did not have did not- michelle nunn have enough. >> we will look at her concession speech in a little bit. let's keep running through the results for the evening. headederts appears to be towards a reelection. that is the big news. that leaves in terms of races we are looking at republicans to get their final pick up, a net of 6. virginia is closer than we
michelle knight did not have did not- michelle nunn have enough. >> we will look at her concession speech in a little bit. let's keep running through the results for the evening. headederts appears to be towards a reelection. that is the big news. that leaves in terms of races we are looking at republicans to get their final pick up, a net of 6. virginia is closer than we
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May 6, 2016
05/16
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this is great, michelle. you wrote a brilliant part of your research paper on the mass distortion, like jobs day, that we see in multifamily. multifamily is doing great, but it is not condos in nashville like 20 years ago. michelle: we can all look at the breakdown -- tom: it is not what we knew years ago. downlle: if you break it to state level or msa level, what you will see is a real concentration of the multifamily building in certain cities. 55% of multifamily construction we have seen has been in 20 msa's. that is at a historical high, significantly what we saw -- significantly above what we saw -- tom: it harkens back to the boom of acres of condos 30 and 40 years ago. how will the inequality manifest itself in this morning's jobs report? michelle: this speaks to the type of building we have seen across top cities, more luxury buildings. the average size of the new single family home reached a new record after the great recession . so the type of construction we have seen has been targeted toward highe
this is great, michelle. you wrote a brilliant part of your research paper on the mass distortion, like jobs day, that we see in multifamily. multifamily is doing great, but it is not condos in nashville like 20 years ago. michelle: we can all look at the breakdown -- tom: it is not what we knew years ago. downlle: if you break it to state level or msa level, what you will see is a real concentration of the multifamily building in certain cities. 55% of multifamily construction we have seen has...
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Jun 11, 2015
06/15
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michelle, what is your reaction? michelle: i think that is a we expected. it sounds a bit pace is better from the first quarter but it is still nothing to write home about. erik: what number would you write home about? michelle: it would be great to see if the percent-4% climb. that is what we are hoping for. we know that otto has been doing well and it would be fabulous to see if the percent to 4% number. -- two ca -- to see 3% to 4% number. stephanie: thank you so much for joining us. it is time to give you our top stories of the morning. this may be a wake-up call for greece. the president of the european union says it is time for decisions not more negotiations. donald tusk says the greek government needs to be more realistic. greek prime minister alexis tsipras said he would not impose more austerity measures in exchange for bailout money. tsipras is in brussels today meeting with european officials. a big, big deal this morning involving the oil field hess is excelling at 50% stake in their pipeline and the buyer is private equity firm global of partn
michelle, what is your reaction? michelle: i think that is a we expected. it sounds a bit pace is better from the first quarter but it is still nothing to write home about. erik: what number would you write home about? michelle: it would be great to see if the percent-4% climb. that is what we are hoping for. we know that otto has been doing well and it would be fabulous to see if the percent to 4% number. -- two ca -- to see 3% to 4% number. stephanie: thank you so much for joining us. it is...
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Nov 11, 2020
11/20
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michelle: we saw that lockdowns do work. that is how we got the virus under control in new york, new jersey, the massachusetts areas that were so hard to hit early in the outbreak, and then the same thing is what happened across the southern states, the sunbelt, that got hit when it was hot. we know that is what it is going to take. there are no indications across the united states that anyone is willing to do that, and the point is, hospitals are better equipped to handle this, but in many parts of the u.s. that are starting to get hammered, they don't have the kind of infrastructure that you have in new york or boston or minnesota with the mayo clinic. you have smaller rural areas that do not have the capacity for all of these coronavirus cases, and i think that is what is going to have to happen. we are going to have to be walloped before people know they have to go indoors. romaine: we've seen some hospitals stretched to the limit out west. i am curious about the therapeutic side of this. obviously, there was a lot of ta
michelle: we saw that lockdowns do work. that is how we got the virus under control in new york, new jersey, the massachusetts areas that were so hard to hit early in the outbreak, and then the same thing is what happened across the southern states, the sunbelt, that got hit when it was hot. we know that is what it is going to take. there are no indications across the united states that anyone is willing to do that, and the point is, hospitals are better equipped to handle this, but in many...
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Dec 16, 2020
12/20
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michelle: potentially. if you look at more high-frequency data, what you see is typically black friday, cyber monday, there is a bait increase in spending. thanksgiving and black friday with doorbuster sales. people go to stores and they buy. that did not happen this year as a result of covid so you do not have the in person threat around the does go to three day period. certainly you looking for that type of increase, particular things like clothing and department stores. i think it is right there was a weakening this month relative to what you typically see in the holiday season. part of that reflects seasonal adjustments and part of the fact reflects there was so much momentum into this period the softening is not that surprising. toathan: are you ready pencil in a negative print for payrolls for december? michelle: i do not think the data is pointing to that yet. the claim status looks weaker. noise, butgain the there has to be some concerning signs for a claim. some of the other high-frequency data poi
michelle: potentially. if you look at more high-frequency data, what you see is typically black friday, cyber monday, there is a bait increase in spending. thanksgiving and black friday with doorbuster sales. people go to stores and they buy. that did not happen this year as a result of covid so you do not have the in person threat around the does go to three day period. certainly you looking for that type of increase, particular things like clothing and department stores. i think it is right...
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Nov 4, 2014
11/14
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>> fred will hate me for this michelle nunn. >> michelle nunn. >> she put it to bed early. doesn't have to be in a contested one? you said open. >> all right. >> michelle nunn,.. either way, she is a winner. stay tuned. we are not done with our experts yet. we will have even more smart people at this table. actually, they will be even smarter than the current people. stay tuned. ♪ >> tomorrow night, all sorts of fun election stuff until we pass out or have to go home. we will have a rotating panel of people here smarter than us. here is the next group. a communications director formally with the white house, a veteran and republican ad maker, and we are recycli the republican ad maker, fred davis, because there is something about that hair. a skim, you are working -- >> i think it is going to be a surprise. >> tell me why you think other republican governors like scott walker and like governor schneider, why are some of them having trouble? >> i think it has to do with the economy and that all politics is local in governors races, and this is that he is a rockstar. and i
>> fred will hate me for this michelle nunn. >> michelle nunn. >> she put it to bed early. doesn't have to be in a contested one? you said open. >> all right. >> michelle nunn,.. either way, she is a winner. stay tuned. we are not done with our experts yet. we will have even more smart people at this table. actually, they will be even smarter than the current people. stay tuned. ♪ >> tomorrow night, all sorts of fun election stuff until we pass out or have...
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Nov 2, 2019
11/19
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you sound quite bearish, bob michele. bob: i do. what's missing from this is going down to the grassroots level. what we hear from companies is they are struggling with margin pressure. they are feeling the impact in trade, they feel the impact of higher cost from their suppliers. it is having an effect. how do companies traditionally respond? they cut cost. that means fewer employees and less capex. i think all of that is in the horizon, approaching rapidly. i think the fed is somewhat naive to assume everything is fixed for now. i do expect things to continue to slow down. jonathan: i know gershon is keen to get to the market call. let's get there. what is the market calling treasuries right now? are you saying we are buying around 1.70? gershon: without question. we have had the backup. there was good reason for it. i think we have had crossover buying from tourists looking for some form of insurance from other asset classes they own. now, the big money is coming in. the ecb has turned on the spigot again to qe, and you are seein
you sound quite bearish, bob michele. bob: i do. what's missing from this is going down to the grassroots level. what we hear from companies is they are struggling with margin pressure. they are feeling the impact in trade, they feel the impact of higher cost from their suppliers. it is having an effect. how do companies traditionally respond? they cut cost. that means fewer employees and less capex. i think all of that is in the horizon, approaching rapidly. i think the fed is somewhat naive...
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Aug 23, 2021
08/21
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michelle: not really. the big challenge with the housing market is that inventory would be very low. it is a matter of getting enough time. and that should happen. in time. to me, in terms of the level of interest rates. but i think that is a small part of it. it is much more about payment supply in the market. caroline: great to have some time with you. michelle meyer, bank of america securities head of u.s. economics. coming up, we turn to the rental market. rental demand soaring income and everyone wants to come back to the cities. but will that be put on hold with delta? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ romaine: welcome back. today, we are focused on the u.s. housing market. a lot of attention we have been paying to home purchases. but what about the rental market. we have been seeing a lot of inflation spillover. caroline: 17% higher in july versus what the previous tenants had been paying as an average across the u.s.. apparently that is a record. of course, we don't see if you are getting months free, for
michelle: not really. the big challenge with the housing market is that inventory would be very low. it is a matter of getting enough time. and that should happen. in time. to me, in terms of the level of interest rates. but i think that is a small part of it. it is much more about payment supply in the market. caroline: great to have some time with you. michelle meyer, bank of america securities head of u.s. economics. coming up, we turn to the rental market. rental demand soaring income and...
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Feb 4, 2019
02/19
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michelle: it is a factor. we looked at the reasons behind moving consumer confidence and the biggest reason is the stock market. tom: it matters. michelle: and that is followed by the unemployment rate and gasoline prices. the number one factor is the stock market. we should see confidence come back. about when people talk the fed becoming market dependent rather than data dependent, they are not missing a trick michelle:? -- a trick? michelle: it appears they are reacting to the data we have seen. they are thinking about how the market filters into the economy and a conduit for that is confidence. market corrections that start to weigh on economic activity. you have to wonder what the market is telling us. the fed wants time to see how it filters into the economy. relieved byey are how the stock market has rebounded. nejra: that rebound that tom has shown, is that enough for the fed to start thinking about hiking again? michelle: i do not think they can flip back the other way. they came out with a dovish piv
michelle: it is a factor. we looked at the reasons behind moving consumer confidence and the biggest reason is the stock market. tom: it matters. michelle: and that is followed by the unemployment rate and gasoline prices. the number one factor is the stock market. we should see confidence come back. about when people talk the fed becoming market dependent rather than data dependent, they are not missing a trick michelle:? -- a trick? michelle: it appears they are reacting to the data we have...
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Sep 30, 2021
09/21
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really, michelle? michelle: it is not exactly christmas in september, but we are seeing evidence consumers are spending earlier this holiday season. when you look holistic late at the aggregated inc. of america data -- bank of america data it shows momentum, the broadening of spending across goods like clothing and electronics, thing sensitive to holiday sales, which could be a function of holiday spending. you are also seeing a re-engagement on the leisure side, which is super encouraging. the data we've been following is positive, consumers feel pretty encouraged into the next quarter. tom: they're pulling forward from december 23 when i begin my shopping. our seen today on september 30, no visibility q4, no visibility q1. give us visibility. michelle: i think we are seeing that with our high-frequency data, that we are setting up for what should be a better q4. q3 gdp is coming in around 4% give or take a few tenths. q4, it looks like our baseline forecast is for 6% growth.i'm holding to that number
really, michelle? michelle: it is not exactly christmas in september, but we are seeing evidence consumers are spending earlier this holiday season. when you look holistic late at the aggregated inc. of america data -- bank of america data it shows momentum, the broadening of spending across goods like clothing and electronics, thing sensitive to holiday sales, which could be a function of holiday spending. you are also seeing a re-engagement on the leisure side, which is super encouraging. the...
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Sep 14, 2017
09/17
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michele: we do. we think there are a lot of misconceptions about what is happening in the energy space and oil market in particular. if you look at anyone really working on the data, they are optimistic about this prospects. at least in the short-term. -- if youk at2020,. look at 2020, it could go down a lot. there is a big imbalance. probably people are focused too much on the shale side of things. if you look at the actual data, it is as low as it has been in 60 years. anna: in the china conversation, we have seen a recent pace, quickening in the appreciation of the chinese currency. some have pointed to changes the pboc has made around reserve requirements. saying -- some point to that and say the pboc wants to weaken the currency. his point is that maybe the pboc believes the capital flight risk have diminished and they are realtor live thing the currency as it was before. what is the politics behind this? michele: they have been good at managing the currency throughout this period. they have sol
michele: we do. we think there are a lot of misconceptions about what is happening in the energy space and oil market in particular. if you look at anyone really working on the data, they are optimistic about this prospects. at least in the short-term. -- if youk at2020,. look at 2020, it could go down a lot. there is a big imbalance. probably people are focused too much on the shale side of things. if you look at the actual data, it is as low as it has been in 60 years. anna: in the china...
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Aug 2, 2019
08/19
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michelle: yeah, ok. i don't know that they are under attack, but clearly the fed has stated a willingness to do what it needs to do to keep the economy out of recession. that gives the president more actions that might put the outlook more at risk because the fed is committed to doing what it needs to do to offset. thehat way, i think president gets more free reign to fight the tough fight with china. vonnie? vonnie: the trade deficit widened, but only very slightly. we are talking about $100 million with china. are we seeing any impact yet in the pocketbooks from these initial tariffs? michelle: no. the impact has been pretty limited. at the ways, if you look trends, you would almost argue sortthe tariffs have been of supported, if you will, with imports from china looking to be a little weaker, exports staying stronger, and general over the last six months. than think more broadly just the trade balance with china is the extent to which there has been an impact on the overall economy. the answer is rea
michelle: yeah, ok. i don't know that they are under attack, but clearly the fed has stated a willingness to do what it needs to do to keep the economy out of recession. that gives the president more actions that might put the outlook more at risk because the fed is committed to doing what it needs to do to offset. thehat way, i think president gets more free reign to fight the tough fight with china. vonnie? vonnie: the trade deficit widened, but only very slightly. we are talking about $100...
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Jun 27, 2017
06/17
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michelle: oh yeah. neal: this quarter might be better because the previous quarter was weak, but it's a two plus percent world. tom: two plus percent world is not politically successful of the united states of america. do we need more stimulus? nobody is talking about that , but nobody's talking about that. michelle: look at where the stock market is. look at where the unemployment rate is. we are still making progress. talking about the unemployment rate going down to 3.5% in this bimodal economy. when he worked at the fed, was that thousand are hamilton or martin? we do not have a to america's analysis when you worked at the fed. neal: that is part of the change that michelle was setting. structural change creeps up on you. the transition from agriculture to industry come we tell it in textbooks as if it was a paragraph, but it took the century. there's a lot of change underway as we speak in the structure of this. the respect to where's phillips curve and so forth, remember there was a time when we t
michelle: oh yeah. neal: this quarter might be better because the previous quarter was weak, but it's a two plus percent world. tom: two plus percent world is not politically successful of the united states of america. do we need more stimulus? nobody is talking about that , but nobody's talking about that. michelle: look at where the stock market is. look at where the unemployment rate is. we are still making progress. talking about the unemployment rate going down to 3.5% in this bimodal...
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Oct 2, 2015
10/15
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michelle: clients are looking at improvement. weekre you seeing these signs within the labor markets? labor force about participation back to 1997. michelle: it is when you look at the population ratio in you see the same thing. one side is a demographic story. that will pull down participation. you are seeing signs of discouraged workers. that could be skill mismatch. certain sectors have plentiful jobs. where the workers are, that is where you were not seeing as many these. perhaps it is a dislocation of the labor market. joe: let's talk about the relation between the fed and the job market. it was recently written that the fed can never raise rates if the market discounts lower rates. the prediction is the fed will raise rates only when the market is begging for it. ing marketa begg look like? tom: i agree with the essence of that statement. i think the fed would want to have sufficient confidence to know they do not unleash unintended consequences. the second, they do not want to be in a position to reverse it. the evidence a
michelle: clients are looking at improvement. weekre you seeing these signs within the labor markets? labor force about participation back to 1997. michelle: it is when you look at the population ratio in you see the same thing. one side is a demographic story. that will pull down participation. you are seeing signs of discouraged workers. that could be skill mismatch. certain sectors have plentiful jobs. where the workers are, that is where you were not seeing as many these. perhaps it is a...
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Mar 8, 2021
03/21
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michelle: i think that has been overblown on an aggregate basis. i am sure it is happening on a microlevel and you see that in narratives and anecdotes. you are not seeing that on aggregate. we do not have that much debt to pay down. it is not the 2008 period where you had excess debt and needed to deleverage, households need to clean up their balance sheet. we enter this crisis, this pandemic with low debt ratios. some of the excess cash will be going to debt but the majority will be used to be pumped back into the economy. lisa: will the economy have the same sort of composition when people start pumping their money back in? 70% services and 30% goods, given the dynamic has shifted during the pandemic? are we going back to normal or is this going to be a new normal with more goods and fewer services? michelle: i do not think we will never go back to the economy as a look prior to the pandemic. too much has changed in the world and the economy. certainly the embrace of more technology, the embrace of an online retailer that has shown itself throug
michelle: i think that has been overblown on an aggregate basis. i am sure it is happening on a microlevel and you see that in narratives and anecdotes. you are not seeing that on aggregate. we do not have that much debt to pay down. it is not the 2008 period where you had excess debt and needed to deleverage, households need to clean up their balance sheet. we enter this crisis, this pandemic with low debt ratios. some of the excess cash will be going to debt but the majority will be used to...
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Aug 2, 2019
08/19
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michelle: right. the view and the hope i think of the fed is that they can engineer insurance cuts, whether that be 50 or 75 basis points, not a return to zero lower bound. it is the idea that you can cut a bit and turnaround and extend the expansion. they continue to fight against the fact that globally, growth is weak and the trade war is seemingly getting worse. -- iine: one of the things want to go back to some of these negative bond yields. if the trade issue drives lower interest rates -- this is a viewer question -- what does it mean for domestic markets like housing in the u.s. and automotive's? michelle: you would think there are positive spillovers and that interest rates are coming down so low, interest rate sensitive sectors should do better. housing would be front and center. so far, the response from low interest rate housing has been muted. mortgage purchase applications are up slightly and refinancing is up slightly. you have seen slowdown in home price appreciation and sales moving si
michelle: right. the view and the hope i think of the fed is that they can engineer insurance cuts, whether that be 50 or 75 basis points, not a return to zero lower bound. it is the idea that you can cut a bit and turnaround and extend the expansion. they continue to fight against the fact that globally, growth is weak and the trade war is seemingly getting worse. -- iine: one of the things want to go back to some of these negative bond yields. if the trade issue drives lower interest rates --...
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Apr 3, 2020
04/20
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michael: michelle, it's mike. you put out a note after the jobs report went out that said you expect 16 million to 20 million people will lose jobs over the next couple months. i can't let you get away with a couple months. can you give me an idea what you think april is going to look like and how you're coming up with numbers in this kind of model fantasy world. michelle: in our view the bulk of the weakness will be in april. heavily concentrated in april with some residual declines in may. and the way we come up with it is really using the jobless claims figures. as you noted before, you have to make assumptions for the people reporting for jobless claims that aren't necessarily going to be officially unemployed. there's different surveys that we have to account for in measurement complications. so taking all of that into consideration, you can extrapolate forward and come up with a sense of total amount of job loss. and again, it looks to be quite significant. and it shows you how big of a shock this is and how
michael: michelle, it's mike. you put out a note after the jobs report went out that said you expect 16 million to 20 million people will lose jobs over the next couple months. i can't let you get away with a couple months. can you give me an idea what you think april is going to look like and how you're coming up with numbers in this kind of model fantasy world. michelle: in our view the bulk of the weakness will be in april. heavily concentrated in april with some residual declines in may....
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Nov 3, 2017
11/17
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michelle: it is not an easy job, that's for sure. has had janet yellen in that role for the past several years and has been a careful thinker when it comes to how to conduct monetary policy and how to balance these risks. we don't have agreement on the federal reserve. you have those in the hawkish camp that have been advocating for higher interest rate hikes either because of concern of asset prices or because they are uncomfortable with the level of the on implement rate. you have others that are in the dovish camp that are embracing this idea of a new normal in the economy, one where inflation is structurally low. powell is used to that debate. it's not new. findob is going to be to that consensus and hear a brady ause and come just hear variety of views and come with what he feels is the best policy approach. -- and here a variety of views and come with what he feels is the best policy approach. we are less than six weeks away from another increase, as everybody in the consensus is calling for another increase in december. do you
michelle: it is not an easy job, that's for sure. has had janet yellen in that role for the past several years and has been a careful thinker when it comes to how to conduct monetary policy and how to balance these risks. we don't have agreement on the federal reserve. you have those in the hawkish camp that have been advocating for higher interest rate hikes either because of concern of asset prices or because they are uncomfortable with the level of the on implement rate. you have others that...
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Jun 24, 2020
06/20
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michelle: you are absolutely right about that. where the virus is a rising, things might start to slow their because they have the virus concerns. that is going to be offset by new york, new jersey, massachusetts moving into the reopening process. that is why it is absolutely critical to look at high-frequency data on a state basis. we do a lot of work where we are the states into the degree of reopening and track daily, weekly data in terms of understanding what economic activity is doing. i think the most important indicator will be if the states that are further along in reopening but now have viruses , if you start to see behaviors switch even before there is government policy that demands that, just from personal preferences, i think that will be a very important sign. tom: what should we look for in the high-frequency data tomorrow morning at 8:30, the claims statistics? michelle: claims are a great piece of information, but they are flawed. they are flawed and part because there's backlog issues, presumably in terms of how
michelle: you are absolutely right about that. where the virus is a rising, things might start to slow their because they have the virus concerns. that is going to be offset by new york, new jersey, massachusetts moving into the reopening process. that is why it is absolutely critical to look at high-frequency data on a state basis. we do a lot of work where we are the states into the degree of reopening and track daily, weekly data in terms of understanding what economic activity is doing. i...
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Jul 22, 2018
07/18
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bob michele, you'll be sticking with me. in the markets now to check on treasuries through the week, 2's, 10's, and 30's. closing out last week with a yield curve that was flat, flat, flat at about 25 basis points. today, we steepen into the close of the week, a steeper curve, very slightly through to the end of the week. next up on the program, the final spread. the week ahead, featuring a decision from the ecb and mario draghi. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg real yield." we are live from jpmorgan asset management this week. it is time now for the final spread. coming up over the next week, a rate decision from the european central bank, plus you have a g20 weekend meeting of finance ministers. another round of earnings that includes big tech and european banks, and the latest reading on u.s. gdp. for some quick final thoughts, i am joined again by bob michele, global head of fixed income. bob, we want to go over your four conviction trades. the first one being you reall
bob michele, you'll be sticking with me. in the markets now to check on treasuries through the week, 2's, 10's, and 30's. closing out last week with a yield curve that was flat, flat, flat at about 25 basis points. today, we steepen into the close of the week, a steeper curve, very slightly through to the end of the week. next up on the program, the final spread. the week ahead, featuring a decision from the ecb and mario draghi. this is "bloomberg real yield." ♪ jonathan: i'm...
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Sep 24, 2021
09/21
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michelle: absolutely. i think that is one of the main focused areas. a self-regulatory organization would have a code of conduct or roll book by which all members of the sro would have to comply. in fact, adam has a code of conduct that governs all sorts of principles for market integrity. honestly, that is the thrust of this about the consumer and investor, and there are all kinds of principles to prohibit manipulation and other things that are good practices for business continuity, these are things the industry is already doing. certainly at adam we have our code of conduct that all members agree to, and this would formalize it, and would get this association special revelatory powers, as well. i think that provides the sec and fcc without. romaine: you have an industry that i think to a certain extent can be loosely defined as an industry. a lot of people look at the crypto space and the decentralized nature of it is the attraction. how do you centralize things in a way to get everyone on board for something when maybe that is not what they want or
michelle: absolutely. i think that is one of the main focused areas. a self-regulatory organization would have a code of conduct or roll book by which all members of the sro would have to comply. in fact, adam has a code of conduct that governs all sorts of principles for market integrity. honestly, that is the thrust of this about the consumer and investor, and there are all kinds of principles to prohibit manipulation and other things that are good practices for business continuity, these are...
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Dec 7, 2016
12/16
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michelle: my pleasure. scarlet: coming up next, they first met in 1985, and out of now it appears president xi jinping and bransted. this is bloomberg. ♪ generosity is its own form of power. you can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. nina: i am nina millon does. president-elect -- i am in a. president-elect trump has linda mcmahon, the former ceo of world wrestling entertainment. she met with trump last week and was an early supporter of his presidential campaign. trump has tapped general john head the department of homeland security, according to reports by multiple m
michelle: my pleasure. scarlet: coming up next, they first met in 1985, and out of now it appears president xi jinping and bransted. this is bloomberg. ♪ generosity is its own form of power. you can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a...
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Oct 2, 2015
10/15
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michelle: i think you are right, but let's scale back. this is not in any way going to put an expansion at risk. have beened, and we looking at a very a calmative monica -- a very accommodative economic policy. even if the economy slows to a 2% growth rate, it still has potential, it is a still going to bring the employment rate down, and it still does not justify a 0% interest rate. i think the case for raising interest rates and moving off of the zero number would be valid even with the soffer numbers -- the softer numbers we're seeing. betty: what is the fed afraid of? michelle: first of all, i think the fed is concerned with the economy slowing and having to reverse course. there is no question about that. that is what has kept them from moving prematurely and they wanted to be sure. but by waiting, there is always something that keeps you on hold. the domestic economy is strong enough to warrant a raise, and i think most everybody agrees with that. i think what cap the fed on hold was the international situation. what i think we are
michelle: i think you are right, but let's scale back. this is not in any way going to put an expansion at risk. have beened, and we looking at a very a calmative monica -- a very accommodative economic policy. even if the economy slows to a 2% growth rate, it still has potential, it is a still going to bring the employment rate down, and it still does not justify a 0% interest rate. i think the case for raising interest rates and moving off of the zero number would be valid even with the...
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Sep 26, 2016
09/16
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michele: the big change in the consumer. people out to [indiscernible] who are reacting in a different way to politics and shopping. probably the mood is becoming more important than politics. [indiscernible] we will have to adopt to this reality in terms of politics again. you may be more or less exposed to a certain jogger fee. -- certain geography. if you have a balanced dissipation, very often you'll be up to pick up what you lose into another region, because a number of potential shoppers are still growing. still a hundred million people, but the impact of of a big political event like opec, the italian referendum is not measurable. francine: do you worry about the referendum? you are italian. it is unclear whether the referendum. -- if the referendum doesn't go through, what becomes of it? michele: there are a lot of similarities. we learned a lot because "the pulse." because they a lot still have an advantage but nobody knows what is going to happen. another point is information is vital. people in the u.k. and in ita
michele: the big change in the consumer. people out to [indiscernible] who are reacting in a different way to politics and shopping. probably the mood is becoming more important than politics. [indiscernible] we will have to adopt to this reality in terms of politics again. you may be more or less exposed to a certain jogger fee. -- certain geography. if you have a balanced dissipation, very often you'll be up to pick up what you lose into another region, because a number of potential shoppers...
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Dec 15, 2017
12/17
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bob michele what i want to do with that's what i want to do with bob michele is something he does every year, the bond market awards. i think it is absolutely brilliant. we're going to rattle through them. you chose bond of the year. can you walk me through bond of the year? bob: and distorted markets you have to look for something that is most distorted. i went with the violia zeroes. eight bb -- a triple be rated issue. forget about the fact that money for three years. they actually got lender's to pay them money to take their money. a yield of -3 basis points. and that is not a sign of distorted markets, i don't know what it. jonathan: lifetime achievement award? bob: got to give it to janet yellen. i actually think she is a really cool lady. she got into the fed. he helped normalize policy, and she is also the fed chair in 40 years to have a term without a recession happen. jonathan: comeback player of the year? bob: lots of potential candidates. it has got to be developed market government bonds. every time i am on the utility have not gone up in yield. i said we were going to have
bob michele what i want to do with that's what i want to do with bob michele is something he does every year, the bond market awards. i think it is absolutely brilliant. we're going to rattle through them. you chose bond of the year. can you walk me through bond of the year? bob: and distorted markets you have to look for something that is most distorted. i went with the violia zeroes. eight bb -- a triple be rated issue. forget about the fact that money for three years. they actually got...
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Apr 29, 2021
04/21
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michelle: yes. the inequality story is extremely important, something that gets lost when you talk about aggregate numbers for the overall economy, and that is something we have to consider when we talk about the economic trends. the second about when does it normalize or not normalize, i think the economics should work, the market should sort itself out, supply being able to catch up, and for housing, it is straightforward, because builders are ramping up construction. if you're thinking about the level of building permits and extrapolate that ford, we will have -- forward, we will have a lot of homes in the coming months. there are obstacles, lumber prices are high and they have to figure out how to pass on the prices, challenges around labor shortages, so there are frictions, but i think the desire is to accommodate the market and add to the supply, particularly for housing, given the demand, i think it is there, and that will affect home prices. we think 12% year-over-year, and by the end of the
michelle: yes. the inequality story is extremely important, something that gets lost when you talk about aggregate numbers for the overall economy, and that is something we have to consider when we talk about the economic trends. the second about when does it normalize or not normalize, i think the economics should work, the market should sort itself out, supply being able to catch up, and for housing, it is straightforward, because builders are ramping up construction. if you're thinking about...
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Mar 13, 2015
03/15
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michelle: we are a beauty network. our mission is to empower and inspire women and men to find their own beauty. we do not believe in the philosophy that one size that's all beauty looks. you see so many different faces and adversities, and we want to celebrate that. alix: and what point will you go to a brick-and-mortar store? it is the moneymaker for big malls and big companies. at what point do you want to do that? >> we are very much focused on content and really working with amazing stylist both youtube and instagram, who are making authentic and original beauty contest. we are choosing to invest our money into the artist and content creators themselves rather than a retail effort. alix: are you guys profitable? michelle: yes we are. alix: in just three years, that is amazing. what about competition? are you going after somebody different? michelle: we focus more on the community. we are completely different. we do have a lot of high-end rands at work with us -- bre ands that work with us, and we worked with over
michelle: we are a beauty network. our mission is to empower and inspire women and men to find their own beauty. we do not believe in the philosophy that one size that's all beauty looks. you see so many different faces and adversities, and we want to celebrate that. alix: and what point will you go to a brick-and-mortar store? it is the moneymaker for big malls and big companies. at what point do you want to do that? >> we are very much focused on content and really working with amazing...
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Oct 29, 2021
10/21
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michelle: it came around her expectations. we are holding to our view that the fourth quarter should show a rebound. we have stronger signs of consumer spending. when we look at our card data, we have a really healthy move higher in spending with the services economy re-engaging, with potentially an early start to the holiday shopping season, so we think we will see stronger consumer spending, business investment continuing, and contribution from inventories. so, our forecast is 6% real gdp growth in q4, a nice pickup from the third quarter. tom: major inside baseball. how can you count inventories with the upset of supply shock? michelle: this is going to get wonky -- tom: it is wonky friday, it's ok. michelle: for gdp tech allegiance, it is the change of inventories. if you are contracting by less, it is actually a positive contribution for gdp growth. that is what we saw in the third quarter. inventories are not as down as they were in the second quarter, so that added to percentage points to gdp growth. we are adding to in
michelle: it came around her expectations. we are holding to our view that the fourth quarter should show a rebound. we have stronger signs of consumer spending. when we look at our card data, we have a really healthy move higher in spending with the services economy re-engaging, with potentially an early start to the holiday shopping season, so we think we will see stronger consumer spending, business investment continuing, and contribution from inventories. so, our forecast is 6% real gdp...
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Mar 16, 2020
03/20
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michelle: i'm not sure it does. i think what we can all agree on is that for the time being, the economy is going to be extremely weak. we are seeing stress in terms of business behavior, consumer behavior. it is unprecedented and global in nature. so yes, the economy is very weak. gdp is contracting as we speak. i think what matters more is what will it look like after. can we start to see this narrative that things will turn around, they recovery is around the corner? or is this something that is going to pursue -- going to prove much more persistent and harder to generate that economic growth? i think a lot of it goes back to the policy response. if policymakers are forceful enough in responding to the head to the economy, if the government sector can offset that and cushion that blow, with automatic stabilizers and more direct payments, then i think the recovery becomes more likely. but really, to me it is a big question of what happens on that front. david: you are talking about fiscal stimulus as a practical m
michelle: i'm not sure it does. i think what we can all agree on is that for the time being, the economy is going to be extremely weak. we are seeing stress in terms of business behavior, consumer behavior. it is unprecedented and global in nature. so yes, the economy is very weak. gdp is contracting as we speak. i think what matters more is what will it look like after. can we start to see this narrative that things will turn around, they recovery is around the corner? or is this something...
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Oct 10, 2017
10/17
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michelle: that's the big question. there's no way that puerto rico can get every single dime that it needs. even before the storm hit, the systems were so weak. the electrical system needed for billion dollars in repairs before the storm hit. the wastewater system was looking at spending $1.5 billion just to meet epa regulations. that was again before hurricane maria. shery: it has been very badly hit. to we know anything about the recovery process? michelle: the army corps of engineers is working with prepa and the government. it's a matter of getting that grid up and getting it working again. vonnie: it has been 10 days now since the president was there. it was at least a week? michelle: last tuesday. vonnie: how much has improved in the meantime? michelle: again they are clearing debris and they're dealing with the flood levels, but the major issue is electricity. the hospitals are running on generators and they are relying on diesel fuel, which they are having a hard time getting. the main issues electricity. vonni
michelle: that's the big question. there's no way that puerto rico can get every single dime that it needs. even before the storm hit, the systems were so weak. the electrical system needed for billion dollars in repairs before the storm hit. the wastewater system was looking at spending $1.5 billion just to meet epa regulations. that was again before hurricane maria. shery: it has been very badly hit. to we know anything about the recovery process? michelle: the army corps of engineers is...
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Nov 1, 2019
11/19
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they overestimate -- you sound quite bearish, bob michele. bob: what is missing in all of this is going down to the grassroots level. when we hear from companies is they are struggling with margin pressure. they are feeling the impact in trade, they feel the impact of higher cost from their suppliers. it is having an effect. how do companies traditionally respond? they cut cost. that means fewer employees and less capex. all of that is in the horizon, approaching rapidly. the fed is somewhat naive to assume everything is fixed for now. i do expect things to continue to slow down. jonathan: i know groshong is key to get to the market call. are you saying we are buying around 1.70? question.ithout we have had a backup, there was good reason for it, we have had crossover buying from tourists looking for some insurance from other asset classes. now the big money is coming in. the spigot turned on again to qe and you are seeing at a higher yield and with the slowdown people are seeing globally, they are looking to the u.s. as the high-yield market
they overestimate -- you sound quite bearish, bob michele. bob: what is missing in all of this is going down to the grassroots level. when we hear from companies is they are struggling with margin pressure. they are feeling the impact in trade, they feel the impact of higher cost from their suppliers. it is having an effect. how do companies traditionally respond? they cut cost. that means fewer employees and less capex. all of that is in the horizon, approaching rapidly. the fed is somewhat...
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Dec 3, 2021
12/21
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jonathan: bob michele? bob: francis is right, terrific report. you married that with the ism services index that came out, and that showed respondents showing there is still a labor shortage, and business is as good as it's ever been. this is a very healthy economy. jonathan: i has them 69 handle. krishna, your reaction? krishna: both bob and francis are making the right point. the economy is in fantastic shape right now. the key word is right now. participation will be the critical thing, not just from an inflationary perspective but more importantly, from what the fed decides to do in terms of raising rates rather than just tapering. i think frances may be too early in terms of declaring victory with respect to the participation rate. with everything going on with the virus, looking at that one number and sing the issue has gone away, i think is a little premature. jonathan: frances donald, you can respond to that. frances: certainly not saying we are there, and i agree, what we are talking about is marked to market. a little bit of improvement
jonathan: bob michele? bob: francis is right, terrific report. you married that with the ism services index that came out, and that showed respondents showing there is still a labor shortage, and business is as good as it's ever been. this is a very healthy economy. jonathan: i has them 69 handle. krishna, your reaction? krishna: both bob and francis are making the right point. the economy is in fantastic shape right now. the key word is right now. participation will be the critical thing, not...
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Jul 21, 2018
07/18
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jonathan: bob michele from jpmorgan, thanks to him. from new york, that does it for us and we will see you next week. from new york, this was "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ this isn't just any moving day. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is staying connected with xfinity to make moving... simple. easy. awesome. stay connected while you move with the best wifi experience and two-hour appointment windows. click, call or visit a store today. carol: welcome to "bloomberg businessweek." i'm carol massar. jason: and i am jason kelly. carol: coming up in this week's issue, a future with robot taxies. we will introduce you to a pioneering driverless startup. jason: and how best buy is surviving and may be driving in an amazon world. carol: first, we start with a cover story. we will take a look at pr
jonathan: bob michele from jpmorgan, thanks to him. from new york, that does it for us and we will see you next week. from new york, this was "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg tv. ♪ this isn't just any moving day. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show me decorating shows. this is...